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October 23, 2012 by admin

Fall 2012 Earnings Season

It’s getting tougher out there. That is the key message from this month’s earnings reports so far. Here is what we learned in a nutshell.

IBM had to post a decline in revenue of 5%, but was able to squeak out the same profit on a reduced top-line.

Intel reported sinking revenue in its quarterly report earlier this week. They reported revenue of $13.5 billion – down from  $14.2 billion a year ago -during the third quarter.

Microsoft squeaked out a so-and-so quarter. It posted revenue of US$16.01 billion for the quarter, down from $17.37 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Operating income was down as well.

Hewlett-Packard announced a catastrophic quarter with not much hope for a short term turn-around. HP anticipates revenue declines of 11-13 percent in fiscal 2013 with operating margins of 0-3 percent.

Google’s report came in earlier than expected and worse than expected.  Google reported revenue of $14.10 billion — an increase of 45 percent, compared with the same period last year. However, they were below the market consensus. Also the company was less profitable than expected.

eBay was the outlier. They reported revenue of US$3.4 billion, a 15 percent increase over the same period in 2011. Its Q3 net income on a GAAP basis was $597 million, or $0.45 per diluted share; non-GAAP net income was $718 million, or $0.55 per diluted share — increases of 22 percent and 14 percent, respectively, year over year, driven by top-line growth.

Those numbers are telling the story of a tougher macroeconomic climate. Business in the US is slow. Jobs are coming back, but there is huge uncertainty about the government Fiscal Cliff. It’s a combination of tax hikes and massive spending cuts including a sizable reduction in federal jobs starting January 1, if the House and Congress are not able to agree on a new deficit-reduction plan. While the Fiscal Cliff has not occurred yet, it causes a lot of uncertainty in the market. In situations like that, businesses are pulling back, delaying investment decisions and trim costs.

In the rest of the world there are even stronger head-winds. The Europeans trying to avoid an economic Armageddon with Greece being on the brink of default and Spain being on the verge of having to request a bailout. These countries are followed by Italy, Portugal and Ireland. Other European economies do better but overall things are not looking good. China has slowed down, too.

The numbers we hear this month are certainly reflecting this situation. But there is another insight that these times are providing. They allow us to gauge how strong the value proposition of each company’s products and services really is. We learn about the ability to execute in tougher times. A few examples.

The contrast between IBM and Hewlett Packard could not be more pronounced. The former was able to put a somewhat decent quarter together. The latter had to concede defeat across all business units.

eBay not only posted great numbers. The company upgraded its web presence and launched a new same-day delivery service right in time for the Holiday season. It’s an example for a company that executed well in tough times while getting ready for the next round of competition in their market.

We learn to appreciate the pockets of strength. Take Microsoft Entertainment & Devices Division as an example. Revenues for that division were down and losses were higher compared to the same period last year. That is because Microsoft shipped 1.4 million Xboxes during the last quarter that is 1.3 million units less than from a year earlier. However, they were able to sell 100 billion minutes of Skype calls which is up 40 percent year over year.

These times are not easy for operating executives as well as investors. They are testing. We learn how companies can execute  marketing and selling products and services. We learn about their ability to operationally execute keeping expenses in line with revenue. We learn about areas of growth that can defy a challenging market climate.

Filed Under: Blog Posts Tagged With: eBay, European Downturn, Fall 2012 Earnings, Fiscal Cliff, Google, Hewlett Packard, HP, IBM, Intel

October 19, 2012 by admin

eBay Earnings Q3 2012

Yesterday I had commented on eBay’s latest earnings. Here is the upshot.

eBay reported GAAP net income of 45 cents per share or $597 million. This is up 22% compared to  same period a year ago. Revenue was $3.4 billion in the quarter, up 15% from $2.97 billion in the year-ago period. The adjusted net income was 55 cents per share or $718 million. This is an increase of 14% from the last year Q3 numbers. Profits were a tad higher than expected. Revenue a tad lower. Overall a good performance.

It’s worth to point out that its PayPal unit did well. It reported 117.4 million active accounts. This is an increase of 14% from a year. Revenue was $1.367 billion, up 23% from a year ago. PayPal is a success story within eBay.

Still, eBay has the image of selling used goods. Of course this is not what company is all about these days. Many retailers use the site as an outlet to sell their goods online. eBay responded earlier this month. It has given its website a make-over with a fresher Pinterest-like touch and feel. Around the same time, it launched eBay Now, a new same day shipping service that enables people to get products delivered from local retailers. This positions eBay well against Walmart that is piloting a similar service in selected markets. It also counters Amazon strategy of deploying more local warehouses.

The holiday season is ahead of us. Prime time for eCommerce retailers. eBay appears to be ready.

You can read the entire article here.

Filed Under: Blog Posts Tagged With: eBay, ECommerce Times, Q3 2012, Salto Partners

October 19, 2012 by admin

Google Earnings Q3 2012

 Talked with ECommerce Times about Google’s Q3 numbers.

Google earnings report came as a surprise. It was earlier than expected. It was worse than expected. The company posted third-quarter earnings excluding items of $9.03 per share, down from $9.72 a share a year ago. However, revenue increased 51 percent to $11.33 billion from $7.51 billion a year ago.

The good news first. There is growth. The company is operating relatively well in a slow macroeconomic environment. But even Google is feeling the heat – at least a little.

First, the company revealed that its average cost-per-click declined 15 percent compared to the third quarter a year ago. This is a key metric to watch since it is core to Google’s business and income potential. Click prices have been under pressure for a number of quarters. It’s in Google’s best interest to stop this trend.

Second, Google has to absorb operational losses from Motorola Mobility. Investors hope that this will be only a temporary phenomenon as executives are working hard to turn this business unit around.

A 51% top line growth year over year would be for most business excellent news. For Google the expectations were higher. It missed analyst expectations by $530 million. The market has hoped that they would report earnings excluding items of $10.65 a share. They didn’t. Google slipped in Q3 of 2012.

You can read the article here.

Filed Under: Blog Posts Tagged With: ECommerce Times, Google, Q3 2012, Salto Partners

October 18, 2012 by admin

IBM Q3 2012 Earnings

It’s earnings season. Talked to ECommerce Times this morning on IBM’s Q3.

IBM reported third-quarter sales of $24.7 billion . This is below Wall Street expectations of $25.4 billion. The weak performance was across all IBM business segments, including services and software. IBM hardware sales fell 13% to $3.9 billion. Net income was flat at $3.8 billion, which means IBM did a good job managing its costs. It was able to increase its gross profit margin by 0.9%. Well done. The big issue is growth.

IBM is dealing with two major issues.

Like any other tech companies IBM is battling a weak world economy. Things in the US are slow. The Europeans trying to avoid an economic Armageddon with Greece being on the brink of default and Spain being on the verge of having to request a bailout. These countries are followed by Italy, Portugal and Ireland. Other European economies do better but overall things are not looking good. China has slowed down as well. IBM’s business depends heavily on companies making expensive infrastructure decisions. Those are easily postponed in times of uncertainty.

The second problem for IBM is that it doesn’t have any “cool gadgets”. They sell PCs which are more like office workhorses than fun devices. However, people buy with their discretionary income tablets, smart tvs, smartphones and gaming consoles. IBM has no market share in these market segments.

It’s unlikely that IBM will be competing against the Apple’s of this world anytime soon. For IBM the hope is that its bets on higher-profit software and services, such as data analysis and cloud computing, are paying off.

You can read the full article here.

Filed Under: Blog Posts Tagged With: ECommerce Times, IBM, Q3 2012, Salto Partners

October 17, 2012 by admin

eBay

Talked with ECommerce Times about eBay. The company overhauled its look. It went for a more contemporary design a la Pinterest. What is even more interesting, eBay launched a new app, eBay Now, entering the same-day delivery service. The idea is that shoppers will be able to order items from a variety of retailers — Finish Line, GNC, Home Depot, Macy’s, Office Depot, RadioShack, Target, Toys R Us, and Walgreens. The goal is to get them delivered to the consumer’s door steps in a short period of time. We are talking within hours.

 Just recently Walmart has announced a similar service. We are watching a new battle in the retail industry in which the boundaries between brick and mortar retailers on one hand and the traditional ecommerce company such as eBay and Amazon are blurring. In an analysis conducted by Salto Partners we were able to show that eCommerce vendors who deliver goods from well designed and optimized local warehouses will have a significant prize advantage over shop based delivery approaches. Our model shows that the investment in this warehouse infrastructure are significant though.

You can read the entire article here.

Filed Under: Blog Posts Tagged With: eBay, ECommerce Times, Salto Partners

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